Creating a Distribution Model of Invasive Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius Rusticus) in Michigan Streams Using Publically Accessible Data

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Creating a Distribution Model of Invasive Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius
Rusticus) in Michigan Streams Using Publically Accessible Data, Is A Well-Researched Topic, It Is To Be Used As A Guide Or Framework For Your Research.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this thesis is to create a predictive model of habitat suitability for the invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) throughout the state of Michigan. F. rusticus often outcompete and extirpate native crayfish species, so understanding their habitats of success is instrumental in monitoring vulnerable ecosystems. Michigan State University and the Michigan DNR conducted extensive field surveys across 461 streams sites from 2014-2016. This project compares this field data set to data from publicly available national datasets with the purpose of revealing the ecosystems most vulnerable to the introduction of F. rusticus. The pattern of F. rusticus habitat at a local (100 acres) scale and landscape (1000 acres) scale are determined by comparing the current locations of the species in Michigan against a number of variables quantifying the physical geography of the locations that may affect the spread, growth and survivability of these crayfish. The presence of F. rusticus is also compared to the presence/absence of other species at each surveyed site. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model using variables from Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) datasets found 45 stream locations vulnerable to F. rusticus invasion. This model also determines the variables that have the greatest influence on the model at the center of this research.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………………………………………….ii
LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………………………………….vii
LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………………………………….viii
CHAPTER
I. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………………………1
Background – Michigan’s Crayfish: The Old and the New……………………………………..4
II. LITERATURE REVIEW: SPREAD, IMPACT, ADAPTABILITY AND LIMITING FACTORS OF RUSTY CRAYFISH (FAXONIUS RUSTICUS)………………………………….8
2.1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………….8
2.2: The Spread of Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus)…………………………………………8
2.3: The Effects of Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) on Aquatic Ecosystems……..15
2.4: Interactions with Native Species and Habitat Preference of Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus)……………………………………………………………………………………19
2.5: The Effects of Temperature on Rusty Crayfish (Faxonius rusticus)………………..22
2.6: Physiological and Biological Factors Impacting the Proliferation and Growth of Rusty Crayfish (F. rusticus)…………………………………………………………………..25
III. DATA AND METHODS – DEVELOPING A PREDICTIVE MODEL……………………31
3.1: Overview of Data Sources………………………………………………………………………..31
3.1.i: SSURGO Data……………………………………………………………………………..38

3.1.ii.: NLCD……………………………………………………………………………………….43
3.2: Statistical Methods…………………………………………………………………………………..45
IV. RESULTS………………………………………………………………………………………………………..49
4.1: Current Distribution…………………………………………………………………………………49
4.2: Faxonius rusticus Habitat Predictions………………………………………………………..49
4.3: Selected Patterns in the Accuracy of the ANN for Faxonius rusticus……………..61
4.4: Habitat, Physical, and Chemical Limitations of Faxonius rusticus…………………64
4.5: Faxonius propinquus Accuracy, Presence and Predictions……………………………71
4.6: Faxonius virilis Accuracy, Presence and Predictions……………………………………76
V. DISCUSSION………………………………………………………………………………………………….83
5.1: Predictions of Faxonius rusticus Expansion and Threat to Native Species…….83
5.2: Accuracy Assessment……………………………………………………………………………..88
5.3: Relative Significance of Specific Variables……………………………………………….89
5.4: Limitations…………………………………………………………………………………………….95
5.5: Future Research……………………………………………………………………………………..97
REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………………………………………99

APPENDICES

A. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Code in R……………………………………………………..104
A.1: R Code Used to Create Neural Net and Run Tests for Faxonius rusticus……105
A.2: R Code Used to Create Neural Net and Run Tests for Faxonius propinquus………………………………………………………………………………………..107
A.3: R Code Used to Create Neural Net and Run Tests for Faxonius virilis………109
B. Confusion Matrices, Specificity and Other Statistical Information for All Tests on All Crayfish Species…………………………………………………………………………………111
B.1: Confusion Matrices and Statistical Information for Each Test for Faxonius rusticus……………………………………………………………………………….112
B.2: Confusion Matrices and Statistical Information for Each Test for Faxonius propinquus………………………………………………………………………….122
B.3: Confusion Matrices and Statistical Information for Each Test for Faxonius virilis………………………………………………………………………………….132
C. Statistical Summaries for Faxonius rusticus, Faxonius propinquus, and Faxonius virilis for All Variables……………………………………………………………………142
C.1: Statistical Summaries for Faxonius rusticus…………………………………………..143
C.2: Statistical Summaries for Faxonius propinquus……………………………………..150
C.3: Statistical Summaries for Faxonius virilis……………………………………………..157

Additional information

Author

Robert C. Homan

No of Chapters

5

No of Pages

175

Reference

YES

Format

PDF

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